Évaluation des changements temporels et spatiaux du climat futur de 2021 à 2100 dans le bassin Nanija Bolong (Sénégal)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.46325/afj.v10i1.214Keywords:
CMIP6, ISIMIP3b, climate change, spatial and temporal distribution, model, basin.Abstract
With increasing frequency and intensity across the globe, climate change has posed high risks to any region of the world, including the Sahelian zones, which has significantly affected biodiversity, vegetation, and economies. Thus, the objective of this study is to quantify the annual and seasonal change in climate variables (rainfall and temperature), in response to potential climate change scenarios in the Nanija Bolong Basin. To do this, this study uses data from the reference period 1985-2014 as well as those extracted from four models (MODELE_GFDL_ESM4, MODELE_IPSL-CM6A-LR, MODELE_MPI-ESM1-2-HR and MODELE_MRI-ESM2) selected from about twenty models over 20-year periods (2021-2040, 2041-2060, 2061-2080 and 2081-2100) to project rainfall and temperature trends in the Nanija Bolong basin based on the latest version of the CMIP6 project global model according to three emission scenarios (SSP 126, SSP 370 and SSP 585). Using 1985-2014 as the reference period with all periods, this research extracted and predicted climate trends in the period 2021-2100 based on four scenarios. Projected maximum and minimum temperatures showed increasing trends (from 23.7°C under SSP 245 for 2021-2040 to 27.1°C under SSP 585 for 2081-2100 on minimum temperatures; from 32.2°C under SSP 370 for 2021-2040 to 36.6°C under SSP 585 for 2021-2040 on maximum temperatures), while the change in annual precipitation showed decreasing trends (variation from 483 mm under SSP 245 for 2021-2040 to 284 mm under SSP 585 for 2021-2040). The results of this study provide important implications for climate change adaptation scenarios and territorial planning in the Sahelian environment.
References
1. AghaKouchak A., 2015. Recognizing anthropogenic drought. Nature, 524(7566): 409–411. https://doi.org/10.1038/524409a
2. Almazroui, M., Ashfaq, M., Islam, M.N., Rashid, I.U., Kamil, S., Abid, M.A., O’Brien, E., Ismail, M., Reboita, M.S., Sörensson, A.A., Arias, P.A., Alves, L.M., Tippett, M.K., Saeed, S., Haarsma, R., Doblas-Reyes, F.J., Saeed, F., Kucharski, F., Nadeem, I., Silva-Vidal, Y., 2021. Assessment of CMIP6 performance and projected temperature and precipitation changes over South America. Earth Systems and Environment, 5(2): 155–183.
3. Almazroui, M., Saeed, F., Saeed, S., Nazrul Islam, M., Ismail, M., Klutse, N.A.B., Siddiqui, M.H., 2020. Projected changes in temperature and precipitation over Africa from CMIP6. Earth Systems and Environment, 4: 455–475.
4. Arragaw, A., Woldeamlak, B., 2017. Smallholder farmers’ coping and adaptation strategies to climate change and variability in the central highlands of Ethiopia. Local Environment. https://doi.org/10.1080/13549839.2017.1290058
5. Ault, T.R., Mankin, J.S., Cook, B.I., Smerdon, J.E., 2016. Relative impacts of mitigation, temperature, and precipitation on 21st-century megadrought risk in the American Southwest. Science Advances, 2: e1600873. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1600873
6. Boukhlikha, A., 2021. Changement climatique, situation actuelle et future : cas du bassin versant de la Tafna. Thèse de doctorat, Université HABI Mohammed / HAMOUDI Saeed.
7. Chen, Y., Liu, A., Zhang, Z., Hope, C., Crabbe, M.J.C., 2019. Economic losses of carbon emissions from circum-Arctic permafrost regions under RCP-SSP scenarios. Science of the Total Environment, 658: 1064–1068.
8. Coundono, S., 2025. Changement climatique et impact sur la dynamique des ressources en eau et des activités socio-économiques dans le bassin versant du Niéri-Ko (bassin de la Gambie, Sénégal). Mémoire/Thèse.
9. Diakhaté, M., Mbaye, M.L., Camara, I., Barry, M.B., 2022. Projected changes in the rainfall annual cycle over the Senegal River Basin using CMIP5 bias-corrected simulations. American Journal of Environmental Protection, 10(1): 41–46. https://doi.org/10.12691/env-10-1-5
10. Diaz, L.B., Saurral, R.I., Vera, C.S., 2020. Assessment of South America summer rainfall climatology and trends in global climate model ensembles. International Journal of Climatology, 41(S1): E59–E77.
11. Eyring, V., Bony, S., Meehl, G.A., Senior, C.A., Stevens, B., Stouffer, R.J., Taylor, K.E., 2016. Overview of the coupled model intercomparison project phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization. Geoscientific Model Development, 9: 1937–1958.
12. FAO, 2017. The state of food security and nutrition in the world: Building resilience for peace and food security. Rome: FAO.
13. Faye, O., 2025. Impacts de la variabilité et du changement climatique sur les ressources dans le bassin versant de la Sandougou (affluent du fleuve Gambie, Tambedou). Mémoire/Thèse.
14. Fujimori, S., Hasegawa, T., Krey, V., Riahi, K., Bertram, C., Bodirsky, B.L., Bosetti, V., Callen, J., Després, J., Doelman, J., Drouet, L., Emmerling, J., Frank, S., Fricko, O., Havlik, P., Humpenöder, F., Koopman, J.F.L., van Meijl, H., Ochi, Y., Popp, A., Schmitz, A., Takahashi, K., van Vuuren, D., 2019. Implications of climate change mitigation for agriculture. Nature Sustainability, 2(5): 386–396. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-019-0286-2
15. Gaye, I.T., 2022. Modélisation des impacts du changement climatique sur les ressources en eau du bassin versant du Bafing (haut bassin du fleuve Sénégal). Mémoire/Thèse.
16. Girma, E., Tino, J., Wayessa, G., 2016. Rainfall trend and variability analysis in Setema-Gatira area of Jimma, Southwestern Ethiopia. African Journal of Agricultural Research, 11(32): 3037–3045. https://doi.org/10.5897/AJAR2015.10160
17. Haile, G.G., Tang, Q., Leng, G., Jia, G., Wang, J., Cai, D., Sun, S., Baniya, B., Zhang, Q., 2020. Long-term spatiotemporal variation of drought patterns over the Greater Horn of Africa. Science of the Total Environment, 704: 135299. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.135299
18. Hawkins, E., Sutton, R.T., 2009. The potential to narrow uncertainty in regional climate predictions. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 90(8): 1095–1107.
19. Hrour, Y., 2023. Évaluation de l’impact du changement climatique sur la disponibilité des ressources en eau dans un bassin méditerranéen agricole : cas du bassin du Bas-Loukkos. Thèse de doctorat, IAV Hassan II, Maroc.
20. IPCC, 2013. Climate change 2013: The physical science basis. Cambridge University Press.
21. Konapala, G., Mishra, A.K., Wada, Y., Mann, M.E., 2020. Climate change will affect global water availability through changes in seasonal precipitation and evaporation. Nature Communications, 11: 3044.
22. Laurent, L., Buoncristiani, J.-F., Pohl, B., Zekollari, H., Farinotti, D., Huss, M., Mugnier, J.-L., Pergaud, J., 2020. The impact of climate change and glacier mass loss on hydrology in the Mont-Blanc massif. Scientific Reports, 10: 10420.
23. Thirel, G., Perrin, C., Drogue, G., Gerlinger, K., Krumm, J., Wagner, J.P., 2015. Évolution future des débits des cours d’eau dans le bassin du Rhin en contexte de changement climatique. In: Les tensions sur l’eau en Europe et dans le bassin méditerranéen. Actes de colloque.
24. Yakubu, F., Böhner, J., Bouwer, L. M., & ul Hasson, S., 2026. Changes in Compound Hot-Dry Extremes and Their Exposures under Climate Change.
25. Zhang, G., Zeng, G., Yang, X., & Jiang, Z., 2021. Future changes in extreme high temperature over China at 1.5 C–5 C global warming based on CMIP6 simulations. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 38(2), 253-267).
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2026 Modou NDIAYE, Cheikh FAYE
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
